If you’ve been watching mortgage rates like a hawk — and if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in San Diego, you probably have — March 2026 brings a mixed bag of news. Rates have improved compared to a year ago, but recent weeks have seen some upward movement that has buyers wondering: is now the right time?
As a San Diego real estate broker and mortgage loan originator, I track these numbers daily. Let me break down exactly where rates stand today, how they compare to recent history, and what it all means for your next move in the San Diego housing market.
Where Mortgage Rates Stand Right Now (March 2026)
As of the week of March 24, 2026, here are the average mortgage rates across the most popular loan types:
- 30-Year Fixed: 6.22% (Freddie Mac weekly average)
- 15-Year Fixed: 5.54% (Freddie Mac weekly average)
- FHA 30-Year: ~6.06%
- VA 30-Year: ~5.63%
VA loans continue to offer the best rates on the market — a major advantage for San Diego’s large military and veteran community. FHA loans remain a solid option for first-time buyers who need more flexible qualification requirements.
Rate Comparison: Then vs. Now
Numbers in a vacuum don’t tell the full story. Here’s how today’s rates compare to where we’ve been over the past three years:
| Loan Type | Mar 2023 | Mar 2025 | Sep 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Yr Fixed | 6.50% | 6.67% | 6.30% | 6.22% |
| 15-Yr Fixed | 5.76% | 5.83% | 5.62% | 5.54% |
| FHA 30-Yr | 6.25% | 6.40% | 6.10% | 6.06% |
| VA 30-Yr | 5.94% | 6.10% | 5.80% | 5.63% |
Key Takeaways From the Data
- Rates are lower than a year ago. The 30-year fixed has dropped about 0.45% since March 2025 — that translates to roughly $50 less per month on a $500,000 loan.
- The downward trend has slowed. After dipping close to 6% in early 2026, rates have ticked back up in recent weeks due to rising oil prices and persistent inflation concerns.
- We’re well below the 2023 peaks. Remember when rates touched nearly 8% in late 2023? We’re significantly better off now, even if we haven’t returned to the sub-3% era of 2021.
- VA and FHA loans offer real savings. The spread between conventional and government-backed loans means military buyers and first-time purchasers have a meaningful edge right now.
What’s Driving Rates Right Now?
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its March 18, 2026 meeting, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed’s latest dot plot still projects one more rate cut this year, likely in the second half of 2026 — but several factors are keeping mortgage rates from falling further:
- Inflation concerns: The Fed revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%, partly due to tariff impacts on goods prices and rising energy costs.
- Global uncertainty: Ongoing developments in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, which feeds into broader inflation worries.
- Market expectations: Bond markets are currently pricing in just one 25-basis-point cut in December 2026, which means mortgage rates may not see dramatic improvement in the near term.
What the Experts Are Predicting
Where do experts think rates are headed? The consensus among major forecasters is that 30-year fixed rates will likely average in the low 6% range for the remainder of 2026:
- Fannie Mae projects rates settling around 5.9% by Q2 — the most optimistic major forecast.
- Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to hold around 6.1%–6.3%.
- NAR forecasts a gradual decline toward 6.0% by year-end.
- Morgan Stanley sees a potential dip into the mid-5% range if economic conditions weaken.
The bottom line? Don’t expect rates to plummet back to 3% or even 5% anytime soon. But the slow grind lower from 2023’s highs is real, and the current environment offers meaningfully better terms than buyers faced just 12 months ago.
What This Means for San Diego Buyers and Sellers
For Buyers
San Diego’s median home price sits around $930,000–$1,070,000 depending on property type, with detached single-family homes trending higher. At today’s rates, here’s what monthly payments look like on a $750,000 loan (a common amount for San Diego purchases after a 20% down payment on a median-priced home):
- At 6.22% (today): ~$4,612/month (principal & interest)
- At 6.67% (March 2025): ~$4,828/month
- That’s $216/month in savings — or nearly $2,600 per year — just from the rate improvement over the past 12 months.
Inventory is also improving, with homes staying on market longer (28–34 days on average) and selling close to asking price. This gives buyers more negotiating power than they’ve had in years. If you’re a first-time buyer, FHA and VA loans bring your rate even lower, potentially making homeownership more accessible than it was last year.
Want to see exactly what you’d pay? Use our free mortgage calculator to plug in your specific numbers and find your monthly payment.
For Sellers
Lower rates are gradually unlocking more buyers in the San Diego market. While the “lock-in effect” — homeowners reluctant to trade their 3% pandemic-era rate for a 6%+ rate — continues to constrain inventory, every fraction of a percent rates drop brings more buyers off the sidelines. San Diego home values are projected to appreciate 2%–4% in 2026, so if you’re thinking about selling, the combination of moderate price growth and increasing buyer activity creates a favorable window.
The Bottom Line: Should You Wait for Lower Rates?
Here’s what I tell my clients: don’t try to time the mortgage market. If you find a home you love at a price that works for your budget, today’s rates — while not historically low — are far better than what we saw in 2023 and 2024. And if rates do drop further later this year, refinancing is always an option. The old saying holds true: marry the house, date the rate.
What matters most is finding the right loan structure for your situation. As both a licensed real estate broker (DRE #02325109) and mortgage loan originator (NMLS #1914546), I can help you with every step — from finding the perfect San Diego home to securing the best financing available. Having one person guide you through both sides of the transaction means a smoother, faster, and often less expensive process.
Ready to Make Your Move?
Whether you’re a first-time buyer exploring FHA options, a veteran looking to use your VA benefit, or a homeowner thinking about your next chapter, I’m here to help you navigate today’s market with confidence.
- 📱 Try our free mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly payment
- 📋 Schedule a free consultation to discuss your options
- 🏠 Browse current San Diego listings
Frederick Blum
Real Estate Broker & Mortgage Loan Originator
Blum Realty Group
DRE #02325109 | NMLS #1914546
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