As we head into spring 2026, the San Diego real estate market continues to show resilience despite shifting mortgage rate dynamics. Whether you’re a buyer looking to make a move or a seller evaluating your options, here’s what you need to know about current conditions in America’s Finest City.
Mortgage Rates: Where We Stand in Late March 2026
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate currently sits around 6.36% to 6.52% as of late March 2026, depending on the source. This represents a notable uptick from the low 6% range we saw earlier this month. The Federal Reserve held steady at its March meeting, and with geopolitical pressures and inflation concerns lingering, another rate cut isn’t expected until at least late spring.
For context, rates a year ago at this time averaged about 6.67%, so we’re actually in a slightly better position year-over-year. The 15-year fixed sits around 5.85%, and jumbo loans (common in San Diego’s higher-priced market) are running approximately 6.63%.
What this means for buyers: Don’t wait for a dramatic rate drop. The Fed has projected only one more 25-basis-point cut for the remainder of 2026. If you find the right property, locking in now and refinancing later when rates improve could be a smart play.
San Diego Home Prices: Steady and Supply-Constrained
The San Diego housing market remains fundamentally strong heading into the spring selling season. Here are the key numbers:
- Overall median sales price: $900,000 (flat year-over-year)
- Single-family detached homes: Median around $1,060,000 (up ~1%), with the 4-week rolling average reaching $1,100,750
- Condos and townhomes: 4-week rolling average at $670,000, showing a modest 1.5% monthly climb
- Days on market: Median 28 to 34 days in early 2026
The single-family segment continues to outperform, with coastal homes in top school districts seeing the strongest appreciation. Meanwhile, downtown condos with high HOA fees are seeing relative softness — something condo buyers can potentially leverage.
Inventory: The Story That Won’t Change
The most defining characteristic of San Diego’s market remains the inventory shortage. Total homes for sale declined 15.4% year-over-year, keeping supply at just 1.9 months for single-family homes and 2.8 months for condos. Both figures firmly favor sellers.
There is a silver lining for buyers: new listings for detached homes jumped 17% in the most recent weekly data, pushing active inventory to 2,389 units. Buyers are responding — newly pending sales rose 12% week-over-week, signaling strong spring demand.
The “lock-in effect” persists as a major factor. Many homeowners secured mortgages at 2-3% during 2020-2021 and are reluctant to sell and take on a rate that’s double or triple what they currently pay. This continues to suppress listings and support prices.
What to Expect for the Rest of 2026
Industry forecasts project moderate appreciation of 2% to 4% for San Diego in 2026. No crash is expected — the structural housing shortage, strong local employment, and San Diego’s enduring desirability as a place to live continue to support the market.
Key factors to watch:
- Fed meetings: Next FOMC meeting April 28-29 could signal rate direction
- Spring inventory surge: Will more sellers enter the market as we move into peak season?
- Geopolitical factors: Oil prices and inflation trends will impact mortgage rates
- Local demand: San Diego’s biotech, defense, and tech sectors continue to attract high-income buyers
Bottom Line
San Diego remains one of the most resilient real estate markets in the country. If you’re a buyer, the window to act before the spring rush intensifies is narrowing. If you’re a seller, the supply-demand imbalance continues to work in your favor — especially for well-priced, well-presented properties.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or exploring your options, having an experienced local broker who understands the nuances of the San Diego market is essential. Reach out to Blum Realty Group today to discuss your real estate goals.
Frederick Blum is a licensed real estate broker (DRE #02325109) and mortgage loan originator (NMLS #1914546) serving the greater San Diego area. Contact him at frederick@blumrg.com.
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